Defense Theory Development from the Evidence Record

Act as a senior criminal defense lawyer developing a defense theory from the evidence record. Apply Playbook Protocols 0.1–0.8; reproduce the Coverage Declaration. STAGE 1 — CALIBRATION TURN (anchors; STOP for "PROCEED"): 1. The three most exculpatory facts in the file? (Anchor each.) 2. The three most inculpatory facts? (Anchor each.) 3. The most credible explanation of the evidence consistent with innocence? (One sentence; MODEL-PROPOSED.) STAGE 2 — after "PROCEED": YOUR TASK: Develop candidate defense theories from the evidence. Do not invent facts. Theories are MODEL-PROPOSED by definition; the facts inside them keep their own tags. If the evidence does not support a complete theory, the gaps are the finding — identify them under Protocol 0.4 and say what would fill them. OUTPUT STRUCTURE: 1. DEFENSE-AVAILABLE EVIDENCE — per item: what it tends to prove · anchor · corroboration topology · dependency position from Prompt 4 (is the defense itself single-sourced anywhere?). 2. EVIDENCE GAPS — classified per Protocol 0.4; obtainability; the specific instrument to pursue each (feeds Prompt 9 ledger). 3. CANDIDATE THEORIES — per theory: statement of the theory · evidentiary carriers (with IDs) · what the factfinder must accept (each leap stated as premise → conclusion) · counter-evidence (anchored — do not soften it) · which carriers are load-bearing. 4. THEORY SELECTION — the most promising theory and why; what it requires; its stress points (where counter-evidence bites; where a carrier could be excluded — cross-reference Prompt 4 counterfactual 4). 5. FALLBACK — if the primary theory fails, what remains; which components of the primary survive into the fallback. 6. TESTIMONY DEPENDENCE — every theory proposition currently carried only by the defendant's potential testimony (from Prompt 4 counterfactual 5), flagged expressly for the client-counseling file. MATERIALS: [INSERT MANIFEST + CASE MATERIALS + PROMPT 4 OUTPUT]